RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — In a poll released Thursday, the latest snapshot of voters in swing states shows North Carolina voters have shifted toward Vice President Kamala Harris in the race against former President Donald Trump.
Of all seven swing states surveyed in the CBS 17/Emerson College/The Hill poll, North Carolina was the only state to have the presidential race pivot from red to blue since late August. The margin, however, is very small.
North Carolina: A battle for the 1-point difference
In August, Trump held the one-point lead in the state with 49% of voters favoring him, compared to 48% favoring Harris. In September, the script flipped with 49% of respondents saying they would vote for Harris and 48% saying they would cast their vote for Trump if the election were held today. The remaining 3%—in both polls—said they are undecided or voting for someone else.
In this latest poll of 1,000 likely voters across North Carolina, the party affiliation most represented was Republicans at 36.6%, followed by Democrats at 33.8% and Independent/other at 29.6%, according to Emerson College Polling.
“There has been modest movement in the presidential election since the late August Emerson
swing state polls before the presidential debate,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
In both North Carolina and Arizona, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point. In Arizona, however, Trump still holds a 1-point lead.
Trump’s support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Harris’ support decreased by a point in Michigan and Nevada, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, voters appear to be leaning red with Trump gaining two points and Harris losing two.
Who’s favored for NC’s next governor?
Polling across the swing states, including N.C., showed a trend of democratic candidates outperforming GOP candidates in statewide races.
For Attorney General Josh Stein (D), the gap got wider in the latest poll to give him an 8-point lead over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R). While 48% said they would vote for Stein and 40% opted for Robinson, another 10% said they remain undecided. This is a one-point boost for Stein and a one-point decline for Robinson compared to August polling numbers.
Presidential prediction shows a consensus
Voters in every swing state were asked, regardless of who they support for president, which candidate they expect to actually be president after the 2024 election.
Voters in all swing states expect Harris over Trump to be president in 2024, by a 51% to 48% margin in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Voters expect Harris over Trump in Nevada 50% to 48%, Michigan 52% to 47%, and by the largest margin of 53% to 46% in North Carolina.
Methodology and acknowledgements: Data was collected between September 15-18, 2024 with a North Carolina sample size of n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
