Kamala Harris can relax this week, knowing a clear majority of Americans thought she demolished Donald Trump in the first – and what looks to be the only – debate between the two White House contenders.
But the debate happened a long way out from polling day. And the calculation Trump’s team will make is that, thanks to this, it’ll matter far less than whatever happens between now and November. Voters tend to think about what is immediately in front of them, not what happened in the middle-distant past.
But Harris was still the clear winner. And Ipsos couldn’t find many people whose opinion of Trump improved in the aftermath. More said their view of him had soured, but the majority said they felt no different. Meanwhile, a slew of post-debate polls show marginal increases in Harris’s advantage over Trump. But these are small leads.
As I wrote last week, Harris sought to tell a story with her debate performance. She sounded good, even to this pessimist. Against Trump's belligerent manner it worked well.
But Trump's lines on the economy not improving and jobs being ripped from the Rust Belt were appealing not just to his base. They will resonate with most voters. Whatever Harris's own success in the debate, it is difficult to detract from the widespread disaffection voters are feeling towards the status quo. And Harris is the status quo candidate.
Americans, Brits, the French and much of the West are as unhappy with political and economic climate as they were when the Occupy movement was in full swing. But the difference now is that there is little hope in the air, just plenty of apathy. For Harris to succeed she needs to disassociate herself from the status quo so many are unhappy with at the moment.
On policy specific areas, Harris has gained some ground on inflation. But Trump still has an outsized lead on that subject. Ditto the economy writ large.
The Harris campaign now needs to focus on two areas: becoming more competitive with the working class white vote and the black vote. The working class white vote might be the key to securing a much needed win in North Carolina, for example. The debate was good for her but it won't decide the election.
