Republican candidates lead Missouri races on November ballot: Poll

ST. LOUIS – New Missouri polling data shows former President Donald Trump, incumbent Senator Josh Hawley, and Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe—all Republicans—leading their Democratic opponents by sizeable margins in the November general election.

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll finds the former president leads Vice President Kamala Harris 53.3% to 42.5% on the 2024 presidential ballot, with 2.8% of voters undecided and 1.4% of respondents stating they’d planned on voting for someone else.

Harris is performing better in the polling data than incumbent President Joe Biden, who trailed Trump by 17 points in a February poll, 49% to 32%. The current ECP/The Hill poll finds Missouri voters disapprove of Biden’s job as president by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, 60.9% to 30.5%, with 8.5% neutral or no clear opinion.

The economy is by far the most important issue for likely Missouri voters (40.4%), then threats to democracy (11.3%), crime and immigration (8.7% each), access to abortion (8.1%), and housing affordability (7.8%). Healthcare (6.8%), education (4.7%), and foreign policy (0.5%) rounded out the available choices, with 3.1% of voters naming something else as their biggest priority.

The survey was conducted on September 12-13 and used results from 850 “very likely” voters: 262 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 232 independents or those affiliated with another political party.

Based on 2024 likely voter modeling, the pollsters weighted the data sets according to gender, education, age, race, party registration, and region. The poll’s margin of error (MOE) is +/- 3.3%.

Missouri U.S. Senate Race

In the U.S. Senate race, Hawley holds a double-digit lead over his opponent, Lucas Kunce, 51.2% to 39.7%, with 8.3% of voters left undecided and less than 1% saying they’ll vote for someone else.

Missouri Governor’s Race

In the gubernatorial race, Lt. Governor Kehoe appears well on his way to becoming Governor Mike Parson’s successor, with a 52% to 36% lead over Missouri House Minority Leader Crystal Quade. Eleven percent of voters remain undecided in this race.

Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and Nexstar Media conducted this poll. Review our methodology and data here. Nexstar Media provided the funding for this survey.